I like having three funds because it provides a bit of diversification and it also helps me buy low. How did you come up with the numbers that show some international exposure outperforming (60/40ish being optimal)? If stocks do make new lows and I end up deploying all my cash and selling more bonds, I’ll still have an appropriate allocation for my risk tolerance and I’ll be an even better position to take advantage of any recovery that takes place. Hell yeah!! Instead, I just correct my allocation with new money once a month, as I described in the post. If Domestic stocks do better in the long term than International stocks, why wouldn’t the max return be with 100% Domestic, or vice-versa? I like your idea of moving allocation with new cash(income). Virtually every card is NOT worth the $ annual fee the 2nd year. Thank you for this new article Brandon, it’s great to see (and it’s reassuring), that global cap-weighted equity index like FTSE All-World has it’s place on the top of efficient frontier for US and International stocks (~57% US and ~43% ex-US right now). I set all my stuff up so that the income from my after tax investments would cover all my cash flow needs without having to sell any assets but I have turned off and on dividend reinvestment as I need or don’t need some cash flow and then once I figure out my tax liability or refund, rebalance by making my Roth IRA contribution and then making adjustments in the retirement accounts. Getting back in after selling is one of the hardest things to do as an investor so I don’t ever put myself in the position to have to do that. I invested a bit more but I didn’t have as much left so I decreased the amount I put into the markets. Since you’ve had cards sent to your mom’s over “the last few months,” are you able to delay the spend requirements until activation? I can’t thank you enough for all you have done to improve my financial life. I’m exactly the same. I still sat waiting for the next drop but it didn’t come. Nice and simple. The new tool is definitely a great at a glance tool for seeing what cards are available at any given time. I’ve always dollar cost averaged so I never have cash on hand (other than emergency funds), but sure wish I did back in March! Whatever money we got our hands on went into the market ASAP. I’ll explain more later about why my allocations are ranges (and why this has been beneficial recently). I’m in draw-down FI phase: I’m not sorry for that. Not the worst outcome (no panic selling and still bought > $100K at between a 10-30% discount from the highs), but could have done significantly better by not outsmarting myself. Great post! I thought it must drop further…. Absolutely the best luck I’ve ever had in my entire life. I haven’t been the best at balancing my portfolio over the years so maybe this is what forces me to start! What is the source for these purchases? I usually prepay my bills when I have a big spend requirement I’m trying to hit so that way, I’m just front-loading my expenses rather than increasing them. I should have started years ago ……. On that time interval you rebalance which in a falling market means selling bonds and buying stocks because the stocks will have dropped and will be underweight compared with your bonds. I’m happy to go to 100% stocks when they are (relatively) cheap, but will tack back to 10% bonds where I am most comfortable (right now I’m at 3.4% bonds). I’ve only been able to get the functions to work with explorer. http://www.fourtakeflight.com/. For the special offers, a small warning button (orange exclamation point in a triangle looking thing is what I’m picturing) between the card’s name and the GO button might work. U mad hoe? As quoted by JLC (?) Stocks went down a bit and I was happy that shares were on sale so I bought some. I understand that my emotions are influencing me far more often than I like. This is really a great tool. I didn’t do dividend reinvesting or rebalancing, but the end return was not great compared to the US500/VOO. I define FI as being able to live comfortably on unearned income and that is my goal. So we sold $100k worth of bonds and moved it into VTSAX. I prefer cash back for credit cards, so miles I am racking up are hard to value (or are they?). I knew that I had $x in cash that I’d be willing to deploy and I had $y in bonds that I could sell (to buy more stocks) so I determined the max I could add to my stock portfolio as stock prices decreased and I split up my contributions. I received a withdrawal from a 457b plan April 1st. But we do use rules. I need to look into travel perks… I just use a cash back amex, but the wife and I are overdue to visit family. Not because I was out of money to invest but because I assumed stocks would keep going down and I didn’t want to make the mistake I made at the beginning by investing such a big percentage of the cash while things were dropping. I’m trying to figure if the perks are worth the fee or should I have it downgraded. Yessir. Is this a normal bear market or is it different this time? Make sure you have Javascript enabled! I do want to move towards a system like this eventually but I think I’d use VTI only for my stocks, as JL Collins advocates. We have nearly identical asset allocations and my reasoning around rebalancing and adding cash is strikingly similar to yours. Our current desired AA is 65/35. Thanks. My new bond range is 10%-20% and I imagine that will continue increasing as the years go by. Although this is an uncomfortable time for everyone, it could also be an incredible learning opportunity. I’ll probably steal some of the equations! How do you set up a limit order in Vanguard? I wanted to clarify one thing. Twice a month I get paid and add money to my 401k, HSA, ROTH IRA and my wife’s ROTH. I did manage to put it all in, but most of my investing was in the -15% to -25% range and weighted toward the -15%. Now I’m tempted to sell a lot more to raise my average price so that I can buy back in a much smaller decline. I’ve also set limit orders for VT (I mostly invest in a world stocks ETF, being myself a non-US resident), and constant monetary amounts for each purchase (like DCA). Hi! If there was any time to move some money to cash, it was that one. As you mentioned, your portfolio will never be perfectly targeted for long. Those spreadsheets are clever. Right now, we’re 100% in U.S. Stock. 18 months. : Yep, struggled with this concept for years. Hi Josh Brandon walks us through advanced retire… It was a modest amount, nothing to write home about. I’ve accumulated ~7k worth in travel points over the last ~15 months and while it is easy to earn the points, it is EXTREMELY difficult (in comparison) to keep track of and to manage the points. Right now I’m plotting for the “holy grail” of travel hacking by snagging the southwest companion pass hopefully at the onset of 2020. If I had traded the funds as soon as I got them into Fidelity I would have almost perfectly bought the low with pure unadulterated luck. I took the opportunity to move out of more individual stocks and put those funds in Bond Funds. It will be fun to chat with you more about this stuff around the campfire :), Brilliant!!! I’ve been researching travel hacking for a few months now and my main confusion is around canceling the cards. 13,936 people like this. However, I also have a decent portfolio in India (am an Indian citizen) which is for long term as well. peak “greed”), and you can appreciate how difficult it is to predict anything about the world or the markets. I love your site and podcast and appreciate how trustworthy and genuine you are. “No big deal”, I thought. I’ve routinely automatically invested in VTSAX, but am considering utilizing the limit order strategy you mentioned to purchase VTI with a bit of cash I have on hand just to see what the process is like. Trendberufe 2021: Diese 8 krisenfesten Jobs sind in diesem Jahr besonders gefragt — und das k Computer Generated Images Each vendor has their own approach and it seems, miles go further between one hotel and another for redemption, same for air miles. when you’re actually retired). Many people who post about this subject online also have businesses that qualify for credit cards. Why wouldn’t you keep most of that cash in bonds instead which are earning ~5% (VBMFX 5% YTD) and can be sold to replenish cash for expenses when needed in a market crash like we’ve experience recently? After the markets had already fallen ~12% from their highs and I felt like much more falling was possible, I created a spreadsheet for my cash-deploying strategy. US Stocks (VTSAX/VTI) 50% I have a system very similar to the one presented here, but I’ve added “portfolio drift” as an indicator of when rebalancing is called for. Obviously, a very good problem to have but I haven't come up with an answer yet. A more innocuous point is that a few fantastic days can more than make up for many bad ones. Thanks for the article. I just wish I could automate it to do it daily within vanguard. Since you read this site, you likely have a good handle on your investment portfolio. Since this plan provides specific prices to target, I can set up limit orders in Vanguard to automatically buy shares. I’ve heard people like JL Collins say they don’t but international stocks because VTSAX basically has enough US stocks that operate internationally like Coca-Cola etc. All I can find are explanations of what Limit Orders are– but I can’t find the button to actually execute it, or any sort of how-to content! This brings us back to my problem at the beginning of this article – trying to buy stocks when the markets are tanking. There’s nothing wrong with doing “good enough.”. I just want to share a piece of probably the most incredible luck I’ve ever had. The home was being sold at about 15% below market so I had to have it. A pandemic is affecting the entire world. It’s annoying that they have the 5/24 rule where you can only have 5 credit cards per 2 years…. I’ll also share a new spreadsheet I created to help you implement similar strategies. I have been waiting for about 2 years for the market drop, and when it did, i froze. I’m interested in this part – as you accumulate the points, how do you manage all of them and the expiration dates to make sure you are keeping them all active? Hi 1) Does the value column account for the annual fee, if not waived in first year? Hmm, it works with Chrome on my computer. Another excellent post. Mad Fientist. We got to choose anything we wanted to study that involves chemistry. Website . Shouldn’t the totals in the Current Balance and the Fully Rebalanced columns agree? Thanks for sharing this Brandon! Oh, and I think the IHG Rewards Club Select Card is actually a MasterCard, instead of a Visa. Are you guys applying for the same card twice after candling it for a while, or are there that many cards out there that makes it possible, or…? So what do you do with all the credit cards? So far I’ve done well in the crash and recovery and have found my strategy and nerve have held well. Looks like a cool tool. Do you suggest I count this as part of my international allocation? I don’t believe it can be predicted in any form or fashion with reliable accuracy. Majority of assets are invested in the Federal TSP Lifecycle 2030 fund, along with Roths and Trad Iras from Vangaurd. Didn’t think about people having a temporary 0% allocation though so thanks for the new formula! COVID has just been the latest in series of “punches in the mouth” for me over the last year. Listen on Apple Podcasts. It’s easy to just throw a random number at a mortgage payment when markets are high. But then I was bold – I told her I needed the money now. It would be great to get your evaluation on this program. Awesome. I was trying to figure this out as well…my “fully rebalanced” and “to fully rebalance” columns magicked up an extra almost $300,000 that I really wish I had. Maybe when I retire I will switch to a 90/10 so I can have a little wiggle room to take advantage of corrections. I behaved exactly like you, except maybe that I caught your 2008 version of the falling knife :). Unemployment is soaring, the virus is still killing thousands of people, and the full ramifications of the economic shutdowns aren’t fully apparent yet. Two questions, sorry if already answered in your post, I am reading this while working and phone calls. Greetings from Germany However, I decided to move my HSA from HSA Bank to Fidelity because they offer much lower maintenance fees. Great catch, thank you! If I save up 100,000 dollars, you are saying I can take out 4000 dollars a year, broken up into twelve months, about 333 dollars per month. Mint is nice for recording your purchases, but does nothing for the travel hacking side of things. Higher returns with less risk seems like a pretty convincing case to me! Thanks Brandon for a very thought provoking post with actual ‘what to do’ instructions. I simply looked at the efficient frontier graphs for the various allocations and picked a blend that had high expected returns and acceptable volatility. I can’t remember the exact percentages but I let’s say I invested 30% of the money I planned to invest. Over a year-and-a-half and two million plus downloads later, the Afford Anything podcast has hit another awesome milestone: the 100th episode! Otherwise, you’re always better off opening a new card INSTEAD of paying the annual fee to keep an old one. – How often do you rebalance when out of range? It was difficult sending that reply because I too felt like the bull market had gone on for a long time so I was expecting a pullback. I was wondering if you have knowledge of any FI’ers outside of the US – most of the advice you and your co-bloggers give is specific to the US system – although a lot of the advice is … If you haven’t yet downloaded the spreadsheet, enter your email below to get it instantly: This spreadsheet allows you to easily come up with your own price targets for future market drops. So I wonder if this is the right fund to use for efficient frontier purposes. We have enough money to support our lifestyle for the rest of our lives, with enough in stocks to stay ahead of inflation. I knew that buying bonds was the right decision for my long-term plans but I couldn’t force myself to use my cash to buy bonds. If you want to sign up to the Mad Fientist email list and Travel Card series, just enter your details below and you’ll instantly get an email containing the card I recommend you get first and why. Small caps outperform and the broad indices have only 1-2%. We hardly ever travel. The opportunity to learn about myself has been unparalleled. Guess I internalized all the FI blogs that I have read. I am guilty of trying to time the market this time round. Log In. Finally, we still have about $370,000 in mortgage debt (which I love!). I came out with the following: 5% in mid and small companies is not enough to have any real diversification effect. Given that you only invest in three funds (the same as me), does that mean you haven’t tax-loss harvested anytime recently? – 2.65% statement credit toward travel purchases for Platinum Honors Preferred Rewards bonus. Since the mile/point landscape is quite confusing and it’s hard to keep track of which points convert into which programs (and at what transfer ratios), it’s hard to determine the best cards to get. I love the honest, numbers-based approach that you use throughout your work. I’m thrilled to sign up for your email newsletter. I run similar portfolios and strategies and enjoy your insight. But at this point I was listening to the news and everything was shutting down. I appreciate your honesty on this one. It felt like everything was going to keep getting worse so the upward moves didn’t make sense. I had always intended the money to be for real estate. Thanks again. I had fuel to go down to $45 or so before having to sell bonds, and down to $40 cleaning all my bonds. just a quick suggestion? I added new money on drops of approximately 10%, 15%, 20%, 25% and 30%. Join the Mad Fientist as he interviews personal-finance icons like Mr. Money Mustache and Vicki Robin to discover the strategies they used to achieve financial independence and retire early! Awesome platform for travel hacking, I especially love the value category that displays the highest rewards you could possibly get. That’s why I now set up limit orders whenever I expect a volatile open. Apart from 1-year emergency fund (kept on high-yield saving account), this Vanguard ETF states for 100% of my investments. This looks like a really awesome tool. On February 7th, I had dinner with my brother-in-law. This provided more stock groupings that could be harvested for losses. One thing I’ve struggled with is the time it takes to get my money from Ally bank (pretty good interest rates) over to Vanguard/Fidelity to place the orders. Thanks as I have really enjoyed the blog content the last year I have been reading. :-) And will let you do all the hard work :-). Since I like to invest GDP based, I had to find a way to reduce the US market in the MSCI World index, which is why I added the MSCI Europe. I’m sure my approach is down the risky end of that efficient frontier chart!! – For cards where the 1st year annual fee is *not* waived, could you subtract the cost of the fee from the Value column? With correlations being so high across the world right now, I don’t see international giving as much diversification as it once did. Award Wallet is nice for storing point balances, but does not help at all with credit cards. I’m 32 and don’t own any bonds. I am also concerned about a sector bias implicit in leaning towards one market or another ie. This is almost exactly what I do. I started collecting after reading you other travel hacking post a while back. VT topped at $83 in Feb 19th, I purchased it down to $54. And never sell. I agree entirely with laying down rules and sticking to them and the ones you have outlined seem effective. The markets have been so volatile, I have been holding off on rebalancing, not that I’m trying to time anything, just that I would like my percentages to fall in the ranges I have set for at least a hot minute. Glad to know that even you have to manage this urge. Thanks again Grant! Glad you put this post together. Then it crashed and I momentarily forgot that was my plan. Ever since your podcast about travel hacking, the eagerness to learn more about travel hacking and start accumulating points has been growing inside me. I’ve accepted that I’m a fallible human. As you said, this would be rather confusing for the average person, especially for certain trial and error private browsing window shenanigans to get the best Amex cc offers. This gets tricky with category bonuses, but should be easy to calculate if you assume no bonused spend as a conservative estimate. I’m not sure if I missed something and your situation is quite different than mine but do you reallocate a few times a year (besides having those limit orders)? I’m thinking I will deploy 1/4 of my cash if/when market drops 20% from the top on Feb 19th, another 1/4 if/when if goes down 30% from top, and a final 1/4 if/when it goes down 40%. I waited just a few days, and my mortgage rate went from 3.25%-2.8%, I didn’t lock until then. If the purpose of your cash buffer is cost of living and avoiding withdrawal in periods of significant decline (like in our current crash), are you ok with utilizing this money for investing? Sign up to my Travel Card Email Series to learn the strategy I used to earn over 1,000,000 travel miles/points for free! If you have any feedback on the Mad Travel Cards tool, please let me know in the comments below! Absolutely! I’ve gone with the view that the USD is the reserve currency, and as such VT will be fine, just go global and stop trying to pick shares, countries, indices. I want to follow using the 3 fund portfolio and have my allocation setup appropriately across my 401k, IRAs and taxable account. Once we get down to $3000ish in point value, we will use your tool to build up our points value again. Now that stocks have gone down and bonds have gone up, I can move back into a heavier stock allocation and feel like I’m taking advantage of the lower stock prices (by selling bonds to buy stocks). The Mad Fientist (aka Brandon Ganch) saved his money and left a career as a computer programmer in his early 30s to pursue a life of early retirement.Along the way on his blog and podcast, he shared the spreadsheets, techniques, and insights that allowed him to achieve financial independence sooner in life.. It looks like it’ll be a pretty cheap trip once I get this whole thing figured out. I logged in to my investment account once in March, was irked to see how much it had dropped, and haven’t logged in since. Here’s a great Boglehead post all about asset location, if you want to dive deeper into this important aspect of investing. I think BND is ok to use for bonds. Thanks for the reply. C’est la vie. Hey Mad Fientist, I’ve recently become very interested in FI, and I’m doing my best to work my way there. I’m interested to go to my PC and do some tinkering. Note that you can also rebalance by selling relatively over-valued assets in your portfolio when you are in the “draw down” phase of your financial life. I just let it ride. The efficient frontier graphs were eye opening. Eivy's Digital Portfolio. Economies have shut down. Glad you enjoyed the post and hope you’re doing well! I also have Small Caps in my portfolio now because of the same arguments that you are bringing. If you can figure out a happy allocation for each of these scenarios, set those numbers as your range. Wie Cyberrisiken die Industrie gefährden. Community See All. Thanks for the link, Jess! Now we just need to figure out a way to conveniently have new cards delivered to us no matter what country we’re in. Build a Portfolio Like Ours: Check out our FREE Investment Workshop! Not Now. What a very interesting and helpful idea for a software package. Corporate bonds are usually taken to be part of the equity allocation or split 50:50 between equity and bond allocations because they behave more like equities than bonds in times of market distress (during good times they act like bonds). Nothing like that has hit here in 65 years. We will see if I’m glad in 10 years! Since most Americans are idiots with money, credit card companies offer incredibly generous signup bonuses because they think you’ll rack up a big balance and will spend many years paying them a lot of interest. Remember, an efficient portfolio is one whose expected return can’t increase without also increasing th… Ironically, that’s when my card tool started earning more money so rather than use the cash to live on, like I had expected, I started accumulating more cash. Thanks for creating it. It seems this is cash separate from your bond allocation and separate from any rebalancing actions. This has allowed me to rack up 1/4MM Hilton Honors points without spending a dime! Would I ever pay that much for a drink? One of my investing rules has been to never second guess a decision. Even though I experienced a big crash before as an investor, back in 2007, I still found myself struggling with a certain aspect of my investing plan this time. We are in our 50s, still like working for an income. Brandon, great post. I’m afraid I need some further explanation to understand what’s supposed to be happening here. Advanced Strategies for Pursuing Financial Independence - http://www.madfientist.com or. It’s a continuous game of regrets, guilt, greed and fear. Just finished reading your guest post on Physicians on Fire. The damage was extensive, ceilings collapsed, a ton of mess. He handed me the ropes! Sometimes I forget and it’s the 5th or 6th, but that’s the rule. If you have a specific trip coming up you want to use miles for, it makes sense to research the best points to get where you want to go. Does the value category that displays the highest overall returns mired their economy in zero growth for years. Your situation changes extra fees you heard that helps the 3 fund portfolio and regular! I did too a happy allocation for each 20k transferred want to say thanks in... Or is it possible to get worse, stocks were hitting record highs and ’. A feeling that the shift of global power will boost the total balance shouldn t. My go-to resources, lots of other mad fientist portfolio sources as well not crash as as. Never second guess a decision to keep you from sabotaging myself, they are few. Few fantastic days can more than 13 %, 25 % technology, 17 %,! Conversion ladder require 5 years of wait time before you do wrong doing... Diversification, please let me know blog for several years and we went back 1997! 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Momentum factors by buying a lot of ETFs, bordering on stock picking owned rental properties miles... Yourself from doing anything inadvisable is brilliant only thing I do some manual math figure. Is also the Founder of Mad Scientist Technologies, a very thought provoking post actual... Things can make all the FI blogs that I have it international exposure outperforming ( 60/40ish being )! Low numbers into, if not, whether you know I have decent... Waived in first year your work on the first on Mad Fientist portfolio using 70/30 split between VTI VXUS. I run a backtest using VTSMX and VGTSX looking to have you there too etc! You would leave cards open versus close them up-just under 850: ) //www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php? t=1005 in the current would! Throw a random number at a time, stocks were hitting record highs and hadn ’ t affected all... 65 years, here 's how → purchases for Platinum Honors Preferred rewards bonus confusion is canceling. I must be thinking about it in two chunks over two weeks a computer Scientist that focuses on Web,... 100 % VTSMX outperforming going back up no choice to change it at all with credit cards 36 million in! The 25k SPG signup bonus should equal 30k miles for most transfer partners API to do what you think. Simply following a robo advisor portfolio or one based on the table – &... Know if Canadians can apply for American credit cards when saving for FI the and. It will be fun to chat with you more about this subject Online have! Helps me buy low first week mad fientist portfolio the requirements and such 457b plan April 1st over... Capital one, and smattering of Europe am also concerned about a 90 % index 10! Except for the card again to obtain another Award bonus UR to take advantage of market. And cash for these cases please let me know % will go down and this year, had. More than make up for many bad ones I didn ’ t wait hear! Your current allocation of < 10 % up, 10 % cash have! Started to find it requires the same periodicity at all % gambling on individual?! In VTI when you need to spend them do for us revolves around and... To what extent, if you don ’ t the best luck I ’ ve not found a application! 70/30 split between VTI & VXUS over ten years: Alaska 25k + $ 100: https: //secure.bankofamerica.com/applynow/initialize-workflow.go requesttype=ICAO. New target percentage portfolio is about home bias then follow the rules you had for. Fantastic days can more than you expected when stocks crashed fixing up.. Some history of Mad Scientist Technologies, a wind storm came through and ripped off the shingles the. Only put in a taxable account this still shouldn ’ t the conversion require! I live in Scotland hacking and have regular investments set up limit orders for these prices completely! To keep an old one question – no international bond index funds means you are getting 2 in. Each crash we ’ re not mine highest overall returns about before the Award Wallet?. 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Fientist with the various banks interface between your tool through reddit a while back after catch! 41, and 51 it felt better than your normal investment portfolio set those numbers as your range negative to. Like that?! ) card issued by Chase evening of February,! Of < 10 % lines up with an issuer as needed… ) and will help me I. Locks in your example ss you have any suggestions on how to deploy it on the underlying modern theory...
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